The Globe and Mail published today the first results of a Strategic Counsel poll of large numbers of Liberals concerning their leadership preferences. The surprise headline is that Ignatieff’s lead is a lot less than most pundits have been expecting and the Rae and Dion are still very much in contention. The Globe’s thesis is that either Rae or Dion will win on the final ballot but that one of them will have to choose to support the other. The Globe also suggests the rest of the field, with the exception of Kennedy and Dryden, should abandon the race, sooner rather than later.
I am disappointed, although not entirely surprised, that Scott Brison is supported but only about 3% of Liberals questioned. I think this confirms my earlier comment that no one will criticize him publicly, but they won’t support him privately. If they don’t withdraw before December, expect Volpe, Brison, Fry and Hall-Findlay to pull out after the first ballot, and then the real race will begin.
Two themes are running through the commentary in the past few days: Ignatieff does not have the lead the media and his organizers claim and has less potential to grow his voter base at the convention; Liberals have a renewed sense, following the decline in the government’s popularity over the summer and the controversies on the agenda for this autumn, that they can win the next election, expected in the spring. The affect of this renewed optimism is that Liberals realise they are not choosing someone to hold the fort while the Conservatives burn-out in office.
There is an urgency,now, to pick a leader who has the greatest chance of winning a general election. Ignatieff may appeal to a certain cadre of politicos who enjoy debating policy and constitutional reform, but ordinary Canadians may want something much more prosaic. If this is correct, “Bob” Rae could have the winning stuff. Rae’s support from the Chretien gang may pay off in organization at the convention or at least balance the party heavyweights gathered around Ignatieff.
And I am no closer to a decision about my vote on October 1.
I am disappointed, although not entirely surprised, that Scott Brison is supported but only about 3% of Liberals questioned. I think this confirms my earlier comment that no one will criticize him publicly, but they won’t support him privately. If they don’t withdraw before December, expect Volpe, Brison, Fry and Hall-Findlay to pull out after the first ballot, and then the real race will begin.
Two themes are running through the commentary in the past few days: Ignatieff does not have the lead the media and his organizers claim and has less potential to grow his voter base at the convention; Liberals have a renewed sense, following the decline in the government’s popularity over the summer and the controversies on the agenda for this autumn, that they can win the next election, expected in the spring. The affect of this renewed optimism is that Liberals realise they are not choosing someone to hold the fort while the Conservatives burn-out in office.
There is an urgency,now, to pick a leader who has the greatest chance of winning a general election. Ignatieff may appeal to a certain cadre of politicos who enjoy debating policy and constitutional reform, but ordinary Canadians may want something much more prosaic. If this is correct, “Bob” Rae could have the winning stuff. Rae’s support from the Chretien gang may pay off in organization at the convention or at least balance the party heavyweights gathered around Ignatieff.
And I am no closer to a decision about my vote on October 1.
