2006-10-24

Coming round to Kennedy

Confession time. When the leadership contest began, Gerard Kennedy was next to last on my preference list, followed only by Hedy Fry. His record as education minister in Ontario did not impress me. True, he made a sort of peace with the teachers’ unions but at the price of giving away the public interest in their professional and disciplinary college and continued infusions of large quantities of cash. Aside from that, his record is of an incomplete university education and manager of a program to give away free food. Not quite up there with building a multi-million dollar business or graduating from Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar or, for that matter, holding a prestigious position at an internationally renowned univesity. Add in his sophomoric command of French and his dismal showing in the Quebec delegate elections, there isn’t a lot to get excited about.

As I have watched Kennedy in the leadership debates and numerous television appearances and read more about him, however, and putting him up against the competitors, he’s not looking all that bad. He has moved into my second-choice favourite.

Kennedy, more than the other leading candidates, with the possible exception of Brison, has made party renewal part of his campaign. He knows that winning the next election is about more than casting insults between leadership camps as has become standard practice for Rae and Ignatieff. His is a decidedly “liberal” campaign, tuned to social issues but in a responsible fiscal context. He talks to Canadians in terms they can understand. He is young enough to have a future. In vivid contrast to the Prime Minister, he’s a leader with whom most Canadians could identify.

In contrast, Bob Rae has appeared throughout the campaign as a tired old man who is taking up the leadership as a right and obligation, but for whom there are a million other things he’d rather be doing. Most Canadians hardly care Rae studied, on scholarship, at a foreign university three decades ago. They do care that his record managing Ontario through a financial crisis was terrible. Things were bad, but he and Floyd Laughren made them a lot worse. It’s a personal thing, but I stopped enjoying being a public servant when the Ontario NDP poisoned the working environment for the professional staff. I have noted here before David Collenette’s comment, at a Glendon College alumni reunion, that Rae is unelectable in Ontario. With the province one of two keys to government that Liberals desperately need, taking a chance on Rae could be foolhardy.

Michael Ignatieff is still my preferred candidate for his intellect and his policies. I like the way he calls things the way he sees them, recognising that this may not be the smartest politics and that he may have to tone things down should he move up to the Opposition Leader’s office. The fact that he has studied, lived and worked around the world are assets, not liabilities, despite what his detractors may argue. His organizational depth in the party means he will be able to move quickly to consolidate the leadership and prepare for an election. The campaign platform/Red Book is already written - in his own words. Ignatieff comes with two major questions though: does he have the political experience to make it through a federal election campaign without serious blunders and can he relate to Canadians, and they to him. The image of Ignatieff doing a meet and greet at Tim Horton’s in Estevan always returns to mind. It’s not a happy image.

Today I have read that Kennedy’s supporters are most likely to move behind Ignatieff when he is eliminated from the convention ballot. This surprised me, given Kennedy’s presumed position on the far left of the party. Maybe I’ve missed something. But is it also possible that Ignatieff supporters, concerned that Rae will move up to first place, will abandon Iggy for Kennedy? Could there be a “stop Rae” movement at the convention?

Since the by-election was called for London North-Centre, I have imagined a scenario in which Kennedy runs for and wins the seat on the eve of the leadership convention (note: Kennedy has not ruled out running for the seat). I imagine him coming to Montreal and addressing the convention as the newest elected MP and from Ontario, to boot. It would have an “out of the movies” impact on the convention and be a prefect kick-start to rebuilding the Liberal Party and launching a national campaign. When do nominations close in London? Do I have to disclose that my great-grandmother was a Kennedy after her second marriage?