2008-11-22

neutralising hilary. (and bill)

Much is being made of President-elect Barack Obama’s nomination of Senator Hilary Clinton to be his Secretary of State, commencing next January. It is being billed as a courageous move, building unity in the democratic Party, accommodating a rival in his inner circle, etc. etc. Little is being written, in the media I read regularly, that describes the nomination as an astute tactical move to neutralise both Hilary and former-President Clinton.

Clinton and Obama differed on a number of policy issues during the Primary campaigns but foreign policy was the leading cause of difference. In offering Clinton a position so senior she could not resist, Obama has silenced any criticism she may still harbour of his foreign policy intentions. The US Secretary of Sate may have the trappings of power, including a nice big jet to fly around the world, but the office holder is really only a messenger of the President. Every Important policy decisions is made in The White House and the Secretary is sent to foreign capitals as the President’s sherpa or messenger. If she wants to keep the job, Hilary will obey the political staffers in The White House, and the President.

Obama could have left Clinton as the junior senator for New York where she would have a daily opportunity to speak on foreign and domestic issues. The media would relish every nuance of difference between her and her former rival. She would be home in the USA and Washington where she could continue to organise for another presidential bid in 2012, especially if Obama stumbles of falters (given the economic situation and a nation at war on two fronts, there are bound to be blunders). Out of the Senate and beholden to the new President, she is silenced as an independent politician.

Bill Clinton’s power has been curtailed as well. As part of the cabinet appointment screening process, he has been required to disclose much about his personal affairs and conduct over the past 8 years. With his wife in such a high ranking position, Bill will be relegated to “husband of“ status and forced to sit on the sidelines as a silent observer. Mess-up, embarrass Hilary and the President, tarnish his image; not if he can help it. He thought it was bad when he was caught cheating on his wife!

I am cautious in suggesting either Bill or Hilary will be able to fulfill their new roles without messing-up. At this time, I say I will be surprised if Hilary lasts 4 years as Secretary of State. But if she goes down because of differences with or embarrassment to the President, both Clintons will be diminished in the Democratic Party and the USA. Their power as rivals to Obama will have been permanently lessened.

Yes,it takes courage to want to deal with Hilary Clinton on a regular and frequent basis but not as much courage as it takes to leave her unfettered. Once again, Obama and his team are showing that they are excellent tacticians.