Stephen Harper's divide and conquer strategy pitting Canadians against Canadians failed him in two elections and earned him the contempt of those who favour big-tent politics; politics that unite rather the fragment the country. Prudence would have suggested his opponents have a counter-strategy to this negative tactic. Certainly, Michael Ignatieff made "the big Liberal tent" a central theme to his cross-country tour this past summer, polling numbers suggest Harper's destructive plan is still working.
The current configuration of national support for the Conservatives suggests that numerically a Tory majority government can be formed without a significant breakthrough in the province of Quebec.
Although the Conservatives in the past have used various strategies to get to a majority, most recently the narrowcasting of issues suggests a new majority riding cluster strategy has emerged. In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrowcast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition. With a sweeping pan-Canadian mandate more difficult to attain, it would seem that the Conservatives are more focused on clusters of ridings and issues which divide the opposition to allow the Conservatives to divide the non-Harper universe.
link: Nik on the Numbers - Tories lead by 7 points - majority cluster strategy emerging (Nanos Poll Completed December 2nd 2010)
Generally, I find Nik Nanos' research to be credible and his forecasts the most likely to be accurate for recent electoral contests. This conclusion, that Harper could form a majority government through exclusion, is troubling but entirely consistent with what unfolded in Toronto's recent municipal election, an area where the Conservatives will be trying to scratch out a few more parliamentary seats.
Nearly half of Toronto voters supported new Mayor Rob Ford [pundits who write about his "overwhelming mandate", ignore that he got 47% of the vote and the support of only 15% of the electorate, most didn't vote at all] with an attitude that they don't care much about the future of the city or the quality of life, only that the pay less in taxes. They put the man who had never cared enough about city finances to attend a budget committee meeting in charge and already he has embarked on a course that is obviously unsustainable and could make the waste of previous regimes seem trifling.
Ford narrow-casted to pit the inner suburbs against the city core. His opposition was split in the same way as the Liberal and NDP opposition nationally is split. It worked for Ford and Harper has to be pleased that it appears to be working for him.
Divide and conquer - combined with sufficiently finite targeting - may be enough. It's a scenario we should be worried about and preparing to disrupt.
