Ruminating on the Day After

While most of the polls and pundits overstated Canadians' desire for a change of government (the exception being the SES poll which was the only one to forecast a 6-point spread - all the others foresaw a 10 -point gap), Paul Martin's Liberals were defeated yesterday. The preliminary results are: CPC 124; LPC 103; NDP 29; BQ 51; Ind 1. Not complete devastation, but a certain change of government nevertheless. In his concession speech, PM Martin surprised Canadians by also announcing he will resign as Liberal Party leader at an early opportunity. Fortunately, we are spared a lengthy and bitter effort to remove the leader which might have ensued under a lesser man.

A few things are worth noting about the outcome:

• The CPC failed to win a single seat in Montreal, Toronto or Vancouver and is truly branded now as the party or rural Canada and Alberta, where it took the Calgary and Edmonton. Will urban issues be ignored by the caucus or will the new PM go out of his way to woo urban voters in the East and BC for the next time?
• With such a weak minority and the balance of power resting with the BQ or LPC, it will be difficult for the CPC to build the bridges necessary to sustain itself for long. I see another election in 12-18 months or as soon as a new Liberal leader has solidified his/her position and become known to Canadians.
• The strength of the LPC, BQ and NDP caucuses suggests to me the same-sex marriage and anti-discrimination law are relatively safe. The 10 new CPC MPs from Quebec are likely to be more socially progressive than the returning western members.
• The CPC promised GST reduction may get through because it will come forward before anyone is ready to defeat the government, but the promise of $100 per child per month for home-based child care will be in for a hard time. It will remain to be seen if the new government will be able to repeal the income tax reductions which went into affect on January 1st as also promised.
• The winners yesterday were the Conservatives, obviously, and the Liberals, who did not get wiped-out despite the problems in Quebec and the inviting over the past couple of years between the Chretien and Martin camps. This is nothing like the 2-seat situation the old Progressive Conservative Party was in after the Mulroney years and the Liberals are in a strong position to rebuild. They will also be close to the CPC in terms of the federal funding they will receive.
  
• One loser was the Bloq Quebecois which failed to win 50% of the popular vote as it had hoped and which lost 3 seats to the CPC.
• The NDP was also a big loser; a few days ago Jack Layton was boasting that the NDP would elect more MPs than ever before and have it best showing ever. At 17% support of the popular vote, the NDP fell short of the 1988 record 22% and 43 seats reached under Ed Broadbent's leadership.
• Here in Thornhill, the Liberal incumbent polled 53% vs 34% for the CPC and 8% for the NDP.

There will be a lot to watch for in the next couple of weeks as Stephen Harper moves to pick and Cabinet and prepare to assume office.