I recorded the Toronto leadership debates and watched them after-the-fact, with the benefit of media analysis of the significant moments.
With the race apparently narrowing, each candidate was looking for a knock-out punch but none landed. Some observations:
• Martha Hall-Findlay kept her dignity playing den-mother to some rowdy boys. She tired to make a point about carrying the flag for women at the convention, but her dismal showing in the delegate elections makes her more of an embarrassment than a symbol.
• Ken Dryden has improved his public speaking skills immensely over the summer. If he had been this articulate in June and July he might be rivalling Kennedy or Dion now but, alas, he “got his game on” too late.
• Joe Volpe, whether making excuses for his previous anti-gay efforts or for the party’s and public’s disgust with his campaign, embarrassed himself more than anyone or anything else. Ciao, Joe.
• Freed to speak his mind, Scott Brison showed he has earned a place as a leading economic strategist in the new leader’s entourage and was delightfully passionate about the Liberal Party’s obligation to be the leader on human rights issues. He showed a good sense of humour and the ability to go for the jugular in his exchange with Volpe. If he were straight, or party members more courageous....
So for the leading four. Stephane Dion is showing he has clearly earned a place on the final ballot, be reason of his experience in politics, the party and previous Liberal governments. Unfortunately, and maybe the pressure of the debate was to blame, but he was, again, almost incomprehensible in English. His English skills may be on a par with Jean Chretien’s, but the latter never tried to explain complex thoughts in English and so could always be understood. Dion leaves English listeners with a headache from trying to understand him. If he wins, I hope he will spend some time in intensive language training but I don’t expect to see his name on the final ballot.
Gerard Kennedy - I never thought I would say this - is starting to look good, especially in comparison to his rivals. Maybe he is the only one in the top four without a university degree, but he is their equal in debating issues at a level with which the public can identify. His numbers show him as trailing badly in some parts of the country, notably Quebec, but it’s a problem that a national campaign can address. Four months ago, he was unknown everywhere outside Ontario and now he’s number three. He would certainly be excellent material for a national campaign to work with.
Bob Rae really needs to stop looking so bored and tired - acting as if the only reason he is in the race is to stop Ignatieff. His attack on his college roommate was the only time he showed any passion but was so 1970s UofT. If Rae is the stated preference of a plurality of Canadians among the candidates it is only because his is the best-known name. His lead over Kennedy and Dion could be a lot greater if he would state some policies and show some real interest in being Prime Minister. Enough of the “I have waited all my life for this and my time has come” attitude. Canadians don’t care how well-connected you are, Bob.
Michael Ignatieff, despite coming off a week-from-hell over his Israel comments, showed he is still the man to beat. He showed passion as a man of ideas, while allowing that politics requires an ongoing search for answers. He’s got the language skills and has a following across the country. It’s easy to see why a plurality of Liberals, who know him better than Canadians as a whole, - yet, is supporting him. Ignatieff made a very interesting comment in his closing remarks, suggesting the next federal election will come after the autumn 2007 Ontario provincial election. When most people are still expecting a spring federal campaign, does he know something more about declining support for the Conservatives and Harper’s likelihood to risk his minority government in a confidence vote?
Barring significant developments between now and December - and there is lots of time for those - I can foresee Kennedy/Ignatieff show-down on the final ballot. I think Rae will have difficulties getting his BC delegates to Montreal (some, it has been revealed, didn’t even sign their nomination papers and were therefore disqualified) and he won’t grow his support from Ontario delegates who are more likely to attend. Delegates may grow weary of the sniping between Ignatieff and Rae and Kennedy could very well be the new-comer/out-sider to benefit. He would be a formidable challenge to Stephen Harper. While about the same chronological age, Kennedy appears a generation younger and infinitely more attractive to urban and younger voters and women. I don’t doubt his French language skills will improve rapidly with time spent in Ottawa and Quebec before a national election camaign.
The most notable thing about the Toronto debates is that party members and the media are once again treating the Liberal Party as a potential next government and that has to be good for Canada.
With the race apparently narrowing, each candidate was looking for a knock-out punch but none landed. Some observations:
• Martha Hall-Findlay kept her dignity playing den-mother to some rowdy boys. She tired to make a point about carrying the flag for women at the convention, but her dismal showing in the delegate elections makes her more of an embarrassment than a symbol.
• Ken Dryden has improved his public speaking skills immensely over the summer. If he had been this articulate in June and July he might be rivalling Kennedy or Dion now but, alas, he “got his game on” too late.
• Joe Volpe, whether making excuses for his previous anti-gay efforts or for the party’s and public’s disgust with his campaign, embarrassed himself more than anyone or anything else. Ciao, Joe.
• Freed to speak his mind, Scott Brison showed he has earned a place as a leading economic strategist in the new leader’s entourage and was delightfully passionate about the Liberal Party’s obligation to be the leader on human rights issues. He showed a good sense of humour and the ability to go for the jugular in his exchange with Volpe. If he were straight, or party members more courageous....
So for the leading four. Stephane Dion is showing he has clearly earned a place on the final ballot, be reason of his experience in politics, the party and previous Liberal governments. Unfortunately, and maybe the pressure of the debate was to blame, but he was, again, almost incomprehensible in English. His English skills may be on a par with Jean Chretien’s, but the latter never tried to explain complex thoughts in English and so could always be understood. Dion leaves English listeners with a headache from trying to understand him. If he wins, I hope he will spend some time in intensive language training but I don’t expect to see his name on the final ballot.
Gerard Kennedy - I never thought I would say this - is starting to look good, especially in comparison to his rivals. Maybe he is the only one in the top four without a university degree, but he is their equal in debating issues at a level with which the public can identify. His numbers show him as trailing badly in some parts of the country, notably Quebec, but it’s a problem that a national campaign can address. Four months ago, he was unknown everywhere outside Ontario and now he’s number three. He would certainly be excellent material for a national campaign to work with.
Bob Rae really needs to stop looking so bored and tired - acting as if the only reason he is in the race is to stop Ignatieff. His attack on his college roommate was the only time he showed any passion but was so 1970s UofT. If Rae is the stated preference of a plurality of Canadians among the candidates it is only because his is the best-known name. His lead over Kennedy and Dion could be a lot greater if he would state some policies and show some real interest in being Prime Minister. Enough of the “I have waited all my life for this and my time has come” attitude. Canadians don’t care how well-connected you are, Bob.
Michael Ignatieff, despite coming off a week-from-hell over his Israel comments, showed he is still the man to beat. He showed passion as a man of ideas, while allowing that politics requires an ongoing search for answers. He’s got the language skills and has a following across the country. It’s easy to see why a plurality of Liberals, who know him better than Canadians as a whole, - yet, is supporting him. Ignatieff made a very interesting comment in his closing remarks, suggesting the next federal election will come after the autumn 2007 Ontario provincial election. When most people are still expecting a spring federal campaign, does he know something more about declining support for the Conservatives and Harper’s likelihood to risk his minority government in a confidence vote?
Barring significant developments between now and December - and there is lots of time for those - I can foresee Kennedy/Ignatieff show-down on the final ballot. I think Rae will have difficulties getting his BC delegates to Montreal (some, it has been revealed, didn’t even sign their nomination papers and were therefore disqualified) and he won’t grow his support from Ontario delegates who are more likely to attend. Delegates may grow weary of the sniping between Ignatieff and Rae and Kennedy could very well be the new-comer/out-sider to benefit. He would be a formidable challenge to Stephen Harper. While about the same chronological age, Kennedy appears a generation younger and infinitely more attractive to urban and younger voters and women. I don’t doubt his French language skills will improve rapidly with time spent in Ottawa and Quebec before a national election camaign.
The most notable thing about the Toronto debates is that party members and the media are once again treating the Liberal Party as a potential next government and that has to be good for Canada.
