Liberals, pondering the latest Strategic Counsel poll results, should probably take Valium and heed a former Prime Minister John Diefenbaker, who wisely stated that “poles are for dogs”. The results seem bleak for Liberals who have been on an emotional high since December’s leadership convention, but they are not cause for despair.
Media pundits have honed in on the results compering the PM and Stéphane Dion on perceived leadership qualities where the results may not be hardly surprising. The questions compared a man who has been a national figure for several years with a new leader, largely unknown outside his home province and who has had little opportunity to demonstrate his potential. Rank and file Liberals took a few months to warm to Dion and the general electorate is not any different.
It’s worth noting that an SES poll taken just over a week ago found the Liberals and Conservatives to be in a dead heat while a follow-up showed results on the leadership question similar to the Strategic Counsel results. Likewise, Strategic Counsel’s questions on party empathy showed more Canadians associate themselves with the Liberal Party than the CPC and the overall party preference on the hypothetical “if an election were held today” question much closer (CPC leading 34%-29%) than the leadership question responses might suggest. The Strategic Counsel poll was conducted while the CPC was running its “Dion is not a leader” commercials unchallenged by any advertising from the other national parties. So again, is it surprising Dion took a hit?
As for the pundits that are saying this week that the poll results make a spring election almost a certainty, it’s like those who complain about the weather - wait 24 hours. How many days ago was CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife assuring Lloyd Robertson and Canadians that there was no way they would face a spring election. Now Fife is among those suggesting the campaign buses are fuelled and parked in the driveway ready to roll “after the Québec election”. Well that is March 26, which leaves lots of time for things to change. And I am not among those who believe a strong Liberal/federalist provincial vote in Québec would automatically lead to a collapse of Bloc Québecois support In a spring federal election. Québec voters may just be a bit too sophisticated for that.
The PM has a narrow window for a spring election (3 months) if we accept that Canadians generally don’t want their summer interrupted by a campaign and given Ontarians will be on the campaign trail immediately after Labour Day (both Liberals and Conservatives need to win big in Ontario and need all the energized campaign workers they can muster, unencumbered by a provincial contest). All his stars would have to be aligned to create the conditions favourable for a CPC win and we know the PM doesn’t want to go to the voters and get a second minority mandate. So he needs something much stronger than the results to date.
I accept that Dion’s performance as leader has been a bit shaky, but he is also a man who seems to perform best under pressure. The latest poll results, for Liberals, may not be an entirely bad thing.
Media pundits have honed in on the results compering the PM and Stéphane Dion on perceived leadership qualities where the results may not be hardly surprising. The questions compared a man who has been a national figure for several years with a new leader, largely unknown outside his home province and who has had little opportunity to demonstrate his potential. Rank and file Liberals took a few months to warm to Dion and the general electorate is not any different.
It’s worth noting that an SES poll taken just over a week ago found the Liberals and Conservatives to be in a dead heat while a follow-up showed results on the leadership question similar to the Strategic Counsel results. Likewise, Strategic Counsel’s questions on party empathy showed more Canadians associate themselves with the Liberal Party than the CPC and the overall party preference on the hypothetical “if an election were held today” question much closer (CPC leading 34%-29%) than the leadership question responses might suggest. The Strategic Counsel poll was conducted while the CPC was running its “Dion is not a leader” commercials unchallenged by any advertising from the other national parties. So again, is it surprising Dion took a hit?
As for the pundits that are saying this week that the poll results make a spring election almost a certainty, it’s like those who complain about the weather - wait 24 hours. How many days ago was CTV Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife assuring Lloyd Robertson and Canadians that there was no way they would face a spring election. Now Fife is among those suggesting the campaign buses are fuelled and parked in the driveway ready to roll “after the Québec election”. Well that is March 26, which leaves lots of time for things to change. And I am not among those who believe a strong Liberal/federalist provincial vote in Québec would automatically lead to a collapse of Bloc Québecois support In a spring federal election. Québec voters may just be a bit too sophisticated for that.
The PM has a narrow window for a spring election (3 months) if we accept that Canadians generally don’t want their summer interrupted by a campaign and given Ontarians will be on the campaign trail immediately after Labour Day (both Liberals and Conservatives need to win big in Ontario and need all the energized campaign workers they can muster, unencumbered by a provincial contest). All his stars would have to be aligned to create the conditions favourable for a CPC win and we know the PM doesn’t want to go to the voters and get a second minority mandate. So he needs something much stronger than the results to date.
I accept that Dion’s performance as leader has been a bit shaky, but he is also a man who seems to perform best under pressure. The latest poll results, for Liberals, may not be an entirely bad thing.
