Amidst the Decima Research projections of the CPC being on the verge of a massive victory – OK, I exaggerate but Decima poll results always do seem to be outliers when it comes to measuring the CPC lead. In the 2006 election the pattern was steady from poll to poll and, in the ends, inconsistent with the voters’ decision.
SES Research was consistent throughout the 2006 campaign and closest to the electoral results. The latest poll should at least keep Liberals from looking for tall buildings from which to leap. Nik Nanos, of SES, writes:
“The latest SES Research poll completed this Thursday evening (April 5th) shows the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government. Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%. However, the federal budget, Quebec provincial election results and the new advertising scandal arrest has put downward pressure on Liberal support in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped nine points in Quebec in the past 60 days. Research conducted by SES has shown that in the past there is a direct relationship between federal Liberal support in Quebec and any new revelations regarding the sponsorship scandal. It is too early to tell whether the Liberal drop is short term or not.” See "Nik on the Numbers" .
It’s not surprising to me that the federal Liberals would take a hit in Québec while the the provincial Liberals were losing an election. While the arrest warrant for Jean Lafleur is not the news headline Liberals want, his quick return to Montréal to face the courts should mitigate the harm. Québecers, like all Canadians want to see last century’s scandals settled in the courts and the accused get a fair trial.
Only sceptics will wonder why it is taking federal prosecutors so long to process the charges and bring the cases to court - or why the government’s legal staff chose to go public with a announcement that “Lafleur is wanted on charges but has disappeared” when his lawyers clearly knew where he was and he was obviously willing to return to Montréal. Only cynics will think the timing of the announcement and 24 hours of provocative anti-Liberal headlines, during a week in which the PM was ratcheting-up election speculation, wasn't merely a coincidence. It’s only been 18 months since the Gomery report and these things do take time....
SES Research was consistent throughout the 2006 campaign and closest to the electoral results. The latest poll should at least keep Liberals from looking for tall buildings from which to leap. Nik Nanos, of SES, writes:
“The latest SES Research poll completed this Thursday evening (April 5th) shows the Conservatives are still short of forming a majority government. Nationally, the Conservatives registered the support of 36% of decided voters followed by the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 16%, the BQ at 10% and the Green Party at 6%. However, the federal budget, Quebec provincial election results and the new advertising scandal arrest has put downward pressure on Liberal support in Quebec. The Liberals have dropped nine points in Quebec in the past 60 days. Research conducted by SES has shown that in the past there is a direct relationship between federal Liberal support in Quebec and any new revelations regarding the sponsorship scandal. It is too early to tell whether the Liberal drop is short term or not.” See "Nik on the Numbers" .
It’s not surprising to me that the federal Liberals would take a hit in Québec while the the provincial Liberals were losing an election. While the arrest warrant for Jean Lafleur is not the news headline Liberals want, his quick return to Montréal to face the courts should mitigate the harm. Québecers, like all Canadians want to see last century’s scandals settled in the courts and the accused get a fair trial.
Only sceptics will wonder why it is taking federal prosecutors so long to process the charges and bring the cases to court - or why the government’s legal staff chose to go public with a announcement that “Lafleur is wanted on charges but has disappeared” when his lawyers clearly knew where he was and he was obviously willing to return to Montréal. Only cynics will think the timing of the announcement and 24 hours of provocative anti-Liberal headlines, during a week in which the PM was ratcheting-up election speculation, wasn't merely a coincidence. It’s only been 18 months since the Gomery report and these things do take time....
