With only about 24 hours until the polls open (depending on where you live in Canada), I am a whole lot less optimistic than I had hoped to be when the the Governor General issued the writ for Canada's 41st national election. If opinion polls can be believed in the slightest, it seems months of Conservative attack ads have succeeded in turning Michael Ignatieff into the 21st century edition of "the best prime minister Canada never had". ( I remember when that moniker was applied to Bob Stanfield, but that was so last-century.)
The same polls appear to be telling us, nevertheless, that a large majority of Canadian voters still do not want Stephen Harper to lead their government. They believe it's the Government of Canada, not Stephen Harper's Government and they are insisting on change.
Reality is the Canadian political and parliamentary system is based on first-past-the-post and this does not always work well with a multi-party political system, That is why we have come through five awful years of lies, deceit and contempt for Parliament. While many will accept the need to "unite the left" if the Conservatives are to be defeated, no one in a leadership position has taken the initiative to do so. We are not going to change the Constitution or our system of government by mid-night. It's too late to do anything of that nature to change the outcome of election 2011.
The only remaining option is strategic voting1 . I wrote this on-line at xtra.ca a few weeks ago and stand by it:
“Strategic voting has never been more important than in this election. There are only two choices, Harper’s Conservatives or the Liberal or NDP candidate most likely to win in a given constituency. Votes for third parties and also-rans are votes for Harper and more years of deceit, contempt and corruption.”
link: The limits of strategic voting
Liberals and New Democrats and Greens must decide whether to let personal pride stand in the way of disposing of Stephen Harper. They have long been united on the need to change the government. It is time to unite on a strategy for doing so.
Dozens of polls are available to guide voters as are websites that help voters determine where the CPC is vulnerable. At ProjctDemocracy.ca voters can enter their postal code and get a recommendation for which candidate is most likely to defeat the Harper Conservative. Here in Thornhill it recommends voting for Liberal Karen Mock who, if everything breaks her way might just be able to un-seat Canada's worst-ever environment minister, Peter Kent. The xtra.ca report explained how it would work:
In Thornhill, where Donald is writing from, the Liberals held the riding until 2008, when Conservative Peter Kent snatched it from the incumbent. Although Kent won by a wide margin — 5,500 votes — it’s easy to see why Donald sees the Greens and NDP as spoilers. After all, they accounted for more than 6,000 votes in Thornhill in 2008.
link: The limits of strategic voting
Similar scenarios will play out in dozens of riding across Canada. Many of them will be very close races.
When it comes to opinion pollsters, I am a strong supporter of Nanos Research. With one more update to come this afternoon, it appears NDP and LIberal supporters need to consider a trade-off.
The campaign is now featuring a possible tightening of the races in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and British Columbia.
Factoring the margin of error for the regional sub-sample, a three way statistical tie exists in Atlantic Canada with the Liberals at 34.4%, the Conservatives at 32.9%, and the NDP at 29.1%. Support for the Greens is at 3.6% in Atlantic Canada
The NDP still enjoy a comfortable lead in Quebec with 37.4% support followed by the BQ at 23.9%, the Liberals at 18.1%, the Conservatives at 16.7% and the Greens at 1.3%.
In Ontario, the Tories are at 36.2%, followed by the Liberals at 31.1%, the NDP at 27.4%, and the Green Party at 4.4%.
The Conservatives have a substantial lead in the Prairies with 60.5% support followed by the NDP at 25.0%, the Liberals at 12.9% and the Green Party at 1.7%.
In BC the Tories have 41.2% followed by the NDP at 34.9%, the Grits at 17.9% and the Greens at 5.7%
Gap between Tories, NDP narrows to 6 points in 11th-hour polling - The Globe and Mail
To ensure more Conservative candidates go down in defeat, NDP voters in Atlantic Canada should consider voting Liberal. Liberal voters in BC, and less urgently in Québec, need to relax and vote NDP. Voters in Ontario face a more complex choice but can be assisted by ProjectDemocracy.ca. No personal offence meant, but no one should waste a vote on the Green Party unless they live in Saanich Gulf Islands; there Liberals and New Democrats should unite to send Elizabeth May to Ottawa.
Election 2011 started-out boring and the result seemed a foregone conclusion. That certainly has changed; it's anything but boring. Voter turnout at the advance polls was record setting. Whomever is chosen to lead Canada in the weeks and months ahead, we will all be better off if the turn-out tomorrow sets a modern record. Please call a local candidate's office if you need assistance getting to the polling station. If you need time from work, remember your employer must give it to you - it's the law. Don't let the weather discourage you. It you are not on the voters list but are qualified to vote, take ID and go register at the polling station. Everyone, please vote tomorrow.
- in an astonishing gambit, Stephen Harper yesterday asked Liberals to forget the last five years and vote Conservative in swing ridings to keep the NDP from winning. Fat chance of that happening.↩
