Waiting a week to post on the results of the Liberal leadership constituency voting affords the luxury of time for rational reflection on the results. A week after “super weekend”, the furor has quieted and I feel so much better not to have rushed to publish on the basis of partial returns. With the perfect vision hindsight provides, it is easy to be smug and find in amusement in the comments about who would be winners and losers and who would be the real beneficiaries of the delegate selection vote.
Along with most of the pundits and bloggers, I agree that Michael Ignatieff’s lead of at least 10% (probably closer to 15%, if the ex-officio delegates split as expected) over his nearest rival make him the candidate the others must conspire to beat if he is to be denied the leadership. Outside British Columbia, he has strength across the country - something the other three leading contestants cannot claim. Bob Rae’s weakness in Ontario goes up against Gerard Kennedy’s fatally poor results in Quebec. Stephane Dion, in fourth position, is not well placed to mount a challenge on the convention floor unless he can get an alliance going before the delegates arrive in Montreal. Since Rae will not be pulling out (who in second place would?) it seems only a clear endorsement from Kennedy would give Dion the boost he needs to move up to first place. The risk for Dion and Kennedy is that all the candidates, except Martha Hall-Findlay, will stay on after first ballot and drag out the vote long enough for Ignatieff to slowly climb to 50% and it will be too late when Rae and Ignatieff go to their final face-off.
But a big question mark hangs over how the candidates can and will take advantage of their elected delegates. It is almost a certainty that not all the elected delegates will make it to Montreal to vote. In light of the $2000 - $3000 cost for registration, travel, hotel, meals and the inability of the candidates to subsidise their committed delegates (the $1000 donation limit and prohibitions on paying delegate expenses) and the fact that the delegate selection process was so open to anyone who thought (s)he might like to be in Montreal for the convention, I predict at record-setting low turnout for a national leadership convention. I suspect a large proportion of the elected delegates were unaware that they are on their own in terms of paying for the convention when the submitted their names to be on the ballot.
Ensuring their delegates get to Montreal will be perhaps the most important thing Ignatieff and Rae can work on over the next six weeks. With all the candidates in debt and fund-raising so difficult, there are not a lot of Canadians who will be willing to spend $2000 of their own money to go to Montreal to vote for Ken Dryden or Scott Brison or, dare I say it, Joe Volpe. Likewise, only the leading four stand any chance of raising significant funds to carry their campaign through to December. The others might just as well lay off everyone except their speech writer working on their convention address and 20 minutes of TV fame.
My biggest disappointment with the leadership vote was how poorly Brison fared (behind Volpe nationally and behind even Hall-Findlay in Ontario) It suggests there is still a lot of homophobia in the Liberal Party. Maybe we are seeing a revision of the Flora Factor - voters who committed to Flora Macdonald in her camping to lead the Progressive Conservative Party but abandoned her in the polling booth on the first ballot. Perhaps we are now seeing those who would never say publicly that Canada is not ready for a gay Prime Minister, but who ensure the question is made irrelevant by their first votes.
Where do I think the also-rans will end up? It would seem, on the basis of his camping to date, Scott Brison will move to Ignatieff and that he can likely take most of his Atlantic Canada delegates with him. No candidate wants Joe Volpe’s endorsement and some may be strategising to avoid it. Martha Hall-Findlay’s support is too small to matter. Ken Dryden’s endorsement will be actively sought but I wouldn’t want to guess where he will go. He may be closest to Kennedy on social policy, but he may also prefer to back a more probably winner, Rae or Dion. Should he go to Ignatieff indicating “common-man“ support, the convention would be decided.
At Glendon College’s 40th anniversary reunion a week ago, alumnus David Collenette (13 years a Liberal Cabinet Minister) described Bob Rae as unelectable in Ontario but did not give away who he will be voting for or endorse any of the candidates. Another Glendon Alumna, Chantal Hebert of The Toronto Star, commented that Rae is the candidate Stephen Harper fears most, suggesting that he is very attractive to many in the NDP and that his history as Ontario premier is not as negative as so many believe.
To me, however, Rae’s public appearances are those of a tired old man utterly lacking in passion. Nothing about his campaign suggests he has the energy and fight left in him for a national campaign. He seems to assume he is owed the leadership and somewhat resentful that his university rival, Ignatieff, has come along to attempt to deny it to him. I can see him campaigning much the same way in a general election, as if he is more worthy of the office of Prime Minister than Stephen Harper and just expect Canadians to elect him. Simply, he does not have the passion I believe is needed to win.
Until convinced otherwise, my bets are on Ignatieff to be facing-off with Harper next spring.
Along with most of the pundits and bloggers, I agree that Michael Ignatieff’s lead of at least 10% (probably closer to 15%, if the ex-officio delegates split as expected) over his nearest rival make him the candidate the others must conspire to beat if he is to be denied the leadership. Outside British Columbia, he has strength across the country - something the other three leading contestants cannot claim. Bob Rae’s weakness in Ontario goes up against Gerard Kennedy’s fatally poor results in Quebec. Stephane Dion, in fourth position, is not well placed to mount a challenge on the convention floor unless he can get an alliance going before the delegates arrive in Montreal. Since Rae will not be pulling out (who in second place would?) it seems only a clear endorsement from Kennedy would give Dion the boost he needs to move up to first place. The risk for Dion and Kennedy is that all the candidates, except Martha Hall-Findlay, will stay on after first ballot and drag out the vote long enough for Ignatieff to slowly climb to 50% and it will be too late when Rae and Ignatieff go to their final face-off.
But a big question mark hangs over how the candidates can and will take advantage of their elected delegates. It is almost a certainty that not all the elected delegates will make it to Montreal to vote. In light of the $2000 - $3000 cost for registration, travel, hotel, meals and the inability of the candidates to subsidise their committed delegates (the $1000 donation limit and prohibitions on paying delegate expenses) and the fact that the delegate selection process was so open to anyone who thought (s)he might like to be in Montreal for the convention, I predict at record-setting low turnout for a national leadership convention. I suspect a large proportion of the elected delegates were unaware that they are on their own in terms of paying for the convention when the submitted their names to be on the ballot.
Ensuring their delegates get to Montreal will be perhaps the most important thing Ignatieff and Rae can work on over the next six weeks. With all the candidates in debt and fund-raising so difficult, there are not a lot of Canadians who will be willing to spend $2000 of their own money to go to Montreal to vote for Ken Dryden or Scott Brison or, dare I say it, Joe Volpe. Likewise, only the leading four stand any chance of raising significant funds to carry their campaign through to December. The others might just as well lay off everyone except their speech writer working on their convention address and 20 minutes of TV fame.
My biggest disappointment with the leadership vote was how poorly Brison fared (behind Volpe nationally and behind even Hall-Findlay in Ontario) It suggests there is still a lot of homophobia in the Liberal Party. Maybe we are seeing a revision of the Flora Factor - voters who committed to Flora Macdonald in her camping to lead the Progressive Conservative Party but abandoned her in the polling booth on the first ballot. Perhaps we are now seeing those who would never say publicly that Canada is not ready for a gay Prime Minister, but who ensure the question is made irrelevant by their first votes.
Where do I think the also-rans will end up? It would seem, on the basis of his camping to date, Scott Brison will move to Ignatieff and that he can likely take most of his Atlantic Canada delegates with him. No candidate wants Joe Volpe’s endorsement and some may be strategising to avoid it. Martha Hall-Findlay’s support is too small to matter. Ken Dryden’s endorsement will be actively sought but I wouldn’t want to guess where he will go. He may be closest to Kennedy on social policy, but he may also prefer to back a more probably winner, Rae or Dion. Should he go to Ignatieff indicating “common-man“ support, the convention would be decided.
At Glendon College’s 40th anniversary reunion a week ago, alumnus David Collenette (13 years a Liberal Cabinet Minister) described Bob Rae as unelectable in Ontario but did not give away who he will be voting for or endorse any of the candidates. Another Glendon Alumna, Chantal Hebert of The Toronto Star, commented that Rae is the candidate Stephen Harper fears most, suggesting that he is very attractive to many in the NDP and that his history as Ontario premier is not as negative as so many believe.
To me, however, Rae’s public appearances are those of a tired old man utterly lacking in passion. Nothing about his campaign suggests he has the energy and fight left in him for a national campaign. He seems to assume he is owed the leadership and somewhat resentful that his university rival, Ignatieff, has come along to attempt to deny it to him. I can see him campaigning much the same way in a general election, as if he is more worthy of the office of Prime Minister than Stephen Harper and just expect Canadians to elect him. Simply, he does not have the passion I believe is needed to win.
Until convinced otherwise, my bets are on Ignatieff to be facing-off with Harper next spring.
