Increasingly the momentum in the Liberal leadership race seems to be shifting to Bob Rae. Rae is the only candidate to date to receive the endorsement of candidates departing the race: first Maurizio Bevilaqua and then Caroline Bennett. The drift may have accelerated with the Strategic Counsel poll that found him in a virtual tie (allowing for the margin of error) with Michael Ignatieff and with more opportunity to grow his support at the December convention. The Toronto Star’s Linda Diebel writes today that an ECKOS poll has also found Rae and Ignatieff in a dead heat but that Rae is twice as likely to grow his support in the days and weeks leading up to the final vote. The flaw in the two polls, if there is one, it that they questioned only the Liberal Party general membership; those, like me, who can cast ballots in local riding votes this coming weekend. The local votes will choose delegates to the December convention as well as indicate leadership preferences. But the delegates will be free, after the first ballot, to switch their support to another candidate. Moreover, 1/3 of the voting delegates will be accredited for their status in the Party (MPs and Senators, nominated candidates, constituency presidents, etc.). No poll has looked at this large group which the Ignatieff campaign team claims is solidly behind their candidate.
Regardless, appearing to have momentum and to being the likely victor can’t hurt Rae’s candidacy and his ability to raise funds to carry his campaign through to December.
Rae also may have benefited from a lengthy feature by Murray Campbell in The Globe and Mail on the weekend. It rivalled the the Valpy piece on Michael Ignatieff a few weeks ago as it attempted to exculpate Rae from the record of hit Ontario NDP government. Notably absent from Campbell’s story was any information on links, if any, between him, his brother John and the Chretien loyalists. Can the Chretien followers swing votes at the convention? Will they try? Are John Rae’s connections a key to the funds the campaign has been able to raise and will this translate into better organization in the final 8 weeks?
If nothing more, the Rae/Ignatieff battle will serve to draw attention to the race. What started as a boring contest with 11 candidates, none with a commanding lead, has narrowed to a 2 or 3 man race (Ignatieff, Rae, Dion) and a bunch of others. The party can only hope a few more candidates will withdraw after the local riding votes are in (the ECKOS poll failed to find a single Liberal supporting Hedy Fry!) leaving a television-tolerable maximum of six candidates at the convention in Montreal. The focusing of attention on the frontrunners may help Liberals to move this along.
UPDATE: Hedy Fry announced her withdrawl this morning - the 'mo continues.
Regardless, appearing to have momentum and to being the likely victor can’t hurt Rae’s candidacy and his ability to raise funds to carry his campaign through to December.
Rae also may have benefited from a lengthy feature by Murray Campbell in The Globe and Mail on the weekend. It rivalled the the Valpy piece on Michael Ignatieff a few weeks ago as it attempted to exculpate Rae from the record of hit Ontario NDP government. Notably absent from Campbell’s story was any information on links, if any, between him, his brother John and the Chretien loyalists. Can the Chretien followers swing votes at the convention? Will they try? Are John Rae’s connections a key to the funds the campaign has been able to raise and will this translate into better organization in the final 8 weeks?
If nothing more, the Rae/Ignatieff battle will serve to draw attention to the race. What started as a boring contest with 11 candidates, none with a commanding lead, has narrowed to a 2 or 3 man race (Ignatieff, Rae, Dion) and a bunch of others. The party can only hope a few more candidates will withdraw after the local riding votes are in (the ECKOS poll failed to find a single Liberal supporting Hedy Fry!) leaving a television-tolerable maximum of six candidates at the convention in Montreal. The focusing of attention on the frontrunners may help Liberals to move this along.
UPDATE: Hedy Fry announced her withdrawl this morning - the 'mo continues.
