At the outset, writing about this 2008 election was too discouraging to contemplate. It appeared the PM had manipulated his way into a premature election, in violation of his own fixed-date legislation, that caught the Opposition woefully unprepared (no campaign plan ready for the Liberals, short of funds after having been beat-up by a month-long series of anti-Dion ads and a difficult to explain policy platform).
Nothing much changed in the first weeks. The media focused on the Liberal Party’s declining prospects, ridiculed Stéphane Dion at every opportunity and speculated about the probability that Harper would achieve his craved majority government. CTV’s Robert Fife was so harsh in his criticism he should have been placed on the CPC payroll as an election expense. Notably, the CPC kept every member of the Harper cabinet hidden in local ridings so the PM strode the national stage alone taking responsibility for everything.
For me, the first hint that the Liberals might come to life was when Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff joined Dion at a rally I think was in Toronto. There was life there after-all and Canadians were reminded that the Liberal Party is not one person. And then came the debates, even though their affect on the campaign went unrecognized by most of the media for several days.
I saw trouble for the CPC in the French language debate when Elizabeth May asked the PM, “Where’s your platform?” and when all Harper had to say in response to questions about the economy – at the same time the US Congress was debating the $700 billion assistance package – was “our economy is strong”. He said Canadians weren’t worried about unemployment or losing their homes and, anyway, he knew “what it’s like to be between jobs” and unemployment isn’t so bad.
I expected the PM to have a better answer a night later for the English language debate. He didn’t. Instead he accused the opposition of playing Chicken Little even as Canadians were watching their retirement savings shrink and factories closing. Harper claimed, a week ago, that Canada didn’t need a plan to respond to the world economic situation because it wasn’t affecting Canada.
By Monday, the attest of the PM’s callous attitude was beginning to become apparent as the polls began showing Canadians were taking a second look at Dion, whose debate performance had exceeded most viewers expectations. But again, Harper told Canadians not to worry, this would be a good time buy stocks.
Suddenly the Liberals and Conservatives were in a statistical tie in the important Ontario polls with the Liberals leading the CPC in Québec. By Wednesday, as the PM was forced to drag out his Finance Minister in hopes of showing his government is aware of what is happening, Dion and the Liberals held a blockbuster rally in Toronto, easily covered by all the national media, emphasizing the Liberal strength: sound economic management supporting compassionate social policy. And the PM’s response; he’s getting his best stock market advice from his mother! THAT must make the Finance department and Bank of Canada feel really good.
A week ago, the media portrayed Harper has a strong and in-control leader with flattering photos and cartoons playing on this strengths. Dion was presented, in photos and commentary as a bit of a dofus who couldn’t even sell his own passion.
Yesterday, as the CPC slump in the polls began to appear to be more than an aberration, everything was changing. The Globe and Mail had flattering photos of DIon while the PM was pictured as sullen and gloomy. With five days to go, reports about Liberal momentum were front and centre. I wrote last evening that another Conservative minority seemed to be the likely and ‘nothing’s changed’ result of election 2008. Then I tuned-in to CTV National News to find it rife with speculation from pollsters and reporters that there might be a surprise in store for Canadians on Tuesday. If anything, this morning’s media coverage is even more positive for the Liberals and Dion. The Globe and Mail even evokes a Trudeauesque image of a waiter at Dion’s Toronto rally enthusiastically endorsing Dion and the Liberal Party.
Meanwhile, Jack Layton, having nothing better to add to the debate, pulls out the decades-old NDP promise to regulate credit card interest rates. It’s a promise that has never worked before and won’t work in 2008.
It’s still way too early make forecasts. Five days ago the Liberals seemed down and Dion out for the count. Things could change again in the remaining five days. But three of those are also part of a holiday weekend. If the Liberal momentum can hold through Friday and the Saturday papers.....
No doubt the holiday weekend lull was part of the CPC strategy back in September; go into the weekend high in the polls and avoid last minute surprises as voters turn their attention to turkey and coloured foliage. Now they need a platform and new campaign ads to counter the impression that they don’t about Canadians. With Dion receiving such positive reviews, negative portrayals by the CPC will only cause further damage to the PM.
For the Liberals, this last-minute momentum and is a free and wonderful gift. The media attention is better than all the advertising they could buy. Dion is looking more like “hero” than “zero”.
Tom Clark, fresh from the US campaign trail, replaced Bob Fife on CTV News last night. Maybe it is time to prepare for a new political reality in Canada.
