Wednesday marked a transition for me as I attended my first Liberal rally – the re-launch of Michael Ignatieff's leadership campaign and the release of his Agenda for Nation Building. It was a bit novel for me to be in a room filled with farmer Cabinet members and sitting MPs, to listen to Ian Davey giving instructions to campaign workers and observe the frenzied attention to Blackberry messages. It was also exciting in that the campaign has a smell of victory about it, which is something former Red Tories seldom got to sense.
While my transition to the Liberal Party is moving along (my MP recognised me today which is a small but positive signal) and I like a lot of what Michael Ignatieff is saying. I remain officially undecided though – the closet, so to speak – with regards to who I will vote for on October 1. My choice is narrowed to Ignatieff or Stephane Dion, with Scott Brison trailing behind.
Former Red Tories and gay men must have a special place in their heart for Brison and Roy MacGregor's profile in yesterday's Globe and Mail did nothing to diminish that. But a higher priority is picking a leader who will bring the Liberal Party back to government at the next election. Barring that, holding the Harper Conservatives to a minority and returning to government at the following election.
While my transition to the Liberal Party is moving along (my MP recognised me today which is a small but positive signal) and I like a lot of what Michael Ignatieff is saying. I remain officially undecided though with regards to for whom I will vote for on October 1. My choice is narrowed to Ignatieff, Stephane Dion and Scott Brison.
Former Red Tories and gay men must have a special place in their heart for Brison and RMacGregorr's profile in yesterday's Globe and Mail did nothing to diminish that. But a higher priority is picking a leader who will bring the Liberal Party back to government at the next election. Barring that, holding the Harper Conservatives to a minority and returning to government at the following election. Brison is a good first-ballot choice and I want him to have a prominent role in the party before and after the next election. I cannot imagine, however, that he can win the leadership campaign or a national election at this time. It’s not because he is gay but because has hasn’t had the time to build a following in the Liberal Party and because he is campaigning from a small Maritime base.
The choice between Ignatieff and Dion is difficult. Both are obviously intelligent men (each with an earned PhD from to-rank schools) but concerns remain about their electability. Ignatieff is perhaps too obviously an intellectual and may have difficulty relating to the general electorate. He may be easy fodder for the media who can pick snippets from his wordy comments and turn them against him and the party; witness how his views on the role of western democracies in safeguarding themselves from terrorism. His strengths (international relations and civics) are not things Canadians have typically considered decisive when choosing a government. The risk is that he will be portrayed as an elitist.
Dion’s strengths are more populist with the environment being his lead issue. He has more experience in the federal cabinet than all this competitors combined. But he is handicapped by a less than fluent command of English and residual unpopularity in some circles in Quebec for his strong defence of federalism.
It was obvious at the Ignatieff rally that he has the greatest support of the party establishment as demonstrated by the number of MPs, former Ministers and party notables who back his candidacy. Organizers and organization are strengths. The money may not have arrived in the campaign accounts yet but there is obvious confidence that it will. It is easy to see the Ignatieff campaign transitioning into a national election team within hours of his winning the leadership.
Dion’s organization may be too Quebec based to make a quick transition, although it is, by the tradition of rotation, a Quebecer’s turn to be leader. Other candidates might have a lot of work to do to recruit a national team before getting down to the work of preparing a campaign. Just a look at the websites offered by Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy, Ken Dryden and the others reveals they are not really in the race and they only have three weeks to convince party members voting at the local conventions.
I felt better, after the rally, about Ignatieff but still harbour a gut feeling that he could crash and burn as quickly as he has risen and that he won’t stay around for a long fight if the Conservatives are not ousted at the next election. And what if my attraction to him is that I am also an elitist? I have until October 1 to decide and to come out of the closet.
[full credit should go to Scott Brison for the "I've always been a Liberal - it just took me a while to come come out of the closet" analogy]
