Rumours that the Liberal Party executive and Parliamentary caucus may appoint an interim leader to replace Stéphane Dion this week are spreading furiously. There is also the rumour that Dominic LeBlanc will announce this week that he will no be a candidate leaving the race, presumably, to one between Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae.
Except for his experience as a “retail politician” and musings about modernizing the Liberal Party, Rae leaves me uneasy. I don’t accept necessarily that Ontario voters will never support Rae again after his disastrous NDP administration, but that remains a huge risk. Moreover, that risk became exponentially greater when Rae decided to make himself the champion of the Liberal-NDP coalition. That makes it way to easy for the right to convince nervous voters that, with Rae and Layton, they would be choosing a radical leftist, union dominated catastrophe in waiting.
Like many observers, I have harboured reservations about Ignatieff; an intellectual academic super-star easily attacked for having spent too much of his career in Britain and the United States. Ignatieff has proven himself, however, since his return to Canada. He chose a constituency in south Etobicoke that is working/middle-class not unlike most of urban Canada; it’s decidedly not Rosedale, and he has won easily. He has shown he can win the support of a riding that previously elected a woman of colour as its MP after booting out one of the few Conservatives I can name who is more arrogant than the prime minister. Ignatieff has matured significantly since his first leadership campaign, possibly because he has been 100% committed to Canadian politics since his home-coming; there are no missteps, words uttered in haste soon to be regretted and clarified. His retail-politician skills rival Rae’s but his judgement seems, to me, far better informed and far more rational. This is, as long as he doesn’t push this “make Ignatieff interim leader now” thing too hard or far. Then he makes Rae look like the smarter politician – for the moment – but still s potential car wreck In a national campaign.
Parliament is prorogued. There is a 5-6 week window which is more than enough for the Liberal Party to have a party-wide vote using modern communications and technology, not to mention saving millions of dollars it can’t afford to waste on a delegated convection in Vancouver in May (which, I fear, could be after both the current and coalition governments have fallen). There are likely to be only two candidates who Liberals know well already. Internet or mail-in voting by Liberals who held valid memberships on Dec 1, 2008 would avoid the ugly spectacle of membership-sales for which the party has been criticized in the past. If you weren’t interested enough to hold a Liberal Party membership outside the period of a leadership race, how committed were you? The one-member, one vote method should be weighted so that each of the 308 constituencies has the same authority in choosing the new leader. Ignatieff and Rae can campaign on the internet from now until January 1, there can be a couple of televised debates (both languages) before Jan 9, and mail-in/internet voting ending Jan 17. Allow a day to tally the results and announce a winner on Jan 19. A week before Parliament resumes and things get dicey again.
If the government had fallen and the prime minister got his wish for an election, it would be appropriate for the executive and caucus to appoint a ileader to be confirmed at a later date. That is not the case and Liberals shouldn’t echoes themselves to the risk of accusations of having chosen their leader in the back-rooms . Moreover, Liberals should not be committing to spending borrowed money on a no-one is interested, media non-spectacle in Vancouver 6 months from now. We love BC but....
Or Bob Rae could join Dominc LeBlanc in withdrawing from a race he can’t win and make it easy and inexpensive for everyone. Liberals can spend their money preparing to win the 2009 election.
